Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Milorad Dodik has been systematically suspending the authority of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Republic of Srpska (RS) and paving the way for its secession. The Serb lawmakers have voted for the suspension of the rulings of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which some experts interpret as a “legal secession” and the violation of the Dayton Agreement. Numerous anti-constitutional actions of the Republic of Srpska continuously reduce the state functions including the rule of law and security. 

Therefore, the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina has reached a critical point despite the sanctions imposed by the West not only against Dodik, but also against other officials of the Republic of Srpska. 

Political radicalization in the Republic of Srpska is not free from the influences of Belgrade and Moscow. This is also confirmed by the fact that Dodik and Vučić participate, on an almost daily basis, in joint actions and events in Bosnia and Serbia and especially in those which, based on the interpretations of the wars of the nineties, consider the Serbs to be the biggest victims and that they waged the war of independence. The effort to reinterpret the wars of the nineties also includes a media offensive about Serb suffering always and everywhere, laying special emphasis on the crimes against Serbs in the Independent State of Croatia (not only in Jasenovac). 

In addition, the Embassy of the Russian Federation in Bosnia and Herzegovina declares all foreign policy actions that do not have the support of the Republic of Srpska as an act of hostility. The politics of the Republic of Srpska is subordinated to the Russian vision of global politics. Russian Ambassador Kalabukhov has particularly criticized two members of the State Presidency (Željko Komšić and Denis Bećirović) for visiting Ukraine. 

Despite numerous statements issued by the Western community in support of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, there has been no more comprehensive action that will stand in the way of the formation of the pro-Russian Dodik-Orban-Vučić axis which, under the given circumstances, can have an important influence on the further dynamics in the Western Balkans. 

Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia, Helsinki Bulletin, #168

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